Nearly 30 years after the first IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report in 1990, the forecasts announced at the time are confirmed. In this report, scientists predicted a global temperature increase of 3°C by 2100. Not only are we following this worst-case scenario but, worse still, we are exceeding all expectations. According to the latest studies, global warming looks much more pronounced than expected. Some disturbing news that was predictable…
+7°C in 2100 : the worst case scenario
Since the beginning of the IPCC global climate reports, global warming predictions have become more alarming : + 3°C in 2100 according to the 1990 report, then + 3.6°C then + 4,8°C by the end of the century. Other studies have confirmed the forthcoming increase in temperatures and even predict a greater global warming of the planet : + 7°C in 2100. Whatever the numbers and scenarios are, one thing is certain: we are right in the wall if we keep our current business model. Faced with the urgency and pressure on them, world leaders decided to meet in late September 2019 for the “Climate Action Summit” at the UN headquarters in New York. The summit, wanted by the UN Secretary-General António Guterres, was initially not planned (the COP26 to be held next year).
But do we have to wait for the worst every time so that the states deign to devote time to the climate emergency ? How many marches for the climate, how many millions of people will still have to march around the world to demand that states take their responsibilities ? While the latest IPCC forecasts are alarming and seem to worry Heads of State “exceptionally”, they were totally predictable.
A cruel lack of decisions
The worsening of global warming compared to what was planned is far from being the scoop of the year in environmental matters. How to forecast a real better when none of the 195 signatory countries of the Paris agreement respects its commitments. Together for the Climate Action Summit, they are expected to revise upward their plans against climate change. Even though they can not reach their current goals !
What can we expect from France in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions when it exceeds its objectives by 4.5% ? All sectors, from transportation to building to agriculture, show emissions above targets. And the situation is not more optimistic elsewhere. In other words, humanity has never released so much greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The lack of willingness of the states, the absence of effective and concrete solutions or a Paris agreement that is not very binding for large emitters of CO2 partly explain the situation we are in today. While waiting for the “Climate Action Summit”, China has increased its greenhouse gas emissions by more than 50% in 10 years. The United States (second largest emitter of CO2 in the world) will be absent from the summit. Still a top for nothing ?